Friedman, Jeffrey A. <br/><br/>
War and chance :  assessing uncertainty in international politics / 
Jeffrey A. Friedman. 
 - New York, NY :  Oxford University Press,  [2019] 
 - x, 228 pages :  illustrations;  24 cm 
<br/><br/>Introduction : "One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities" -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Practical implications and directions for further research. 
<br/><br/><label>ISBN: </label>9780190938024 (hardcover) 
<br/><br/><label>LCCN: </label>2018043558 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>International relations--Decision making.<br/>National security--Decision making.<br/>Uncertainty--Political aspects.<br/>Uncertainty--Political aspects--United States.
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Geographic Terms: </label><br/>United States--Foreign relations--Decision making.<br/>United States--National security--Decision making.
<br/><br/><label>LC Class. No.: </label>JZ1253  / .F75 2019 
<br/><br/><label>Dewey Class. No.: </label>327.101/9  / F911