000			02786cam a2200421 i 4500
001			9611
003			MEMOS
005			20240731094504.0
008			150803s2016 enk b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2015023045
020			_a9781107112087 (hardback)
020			_a9781107531024 (pb)
040			_aMEMOS _beng _cDLC _erda _dMEMOS
042			_apcc
050	0	0	_aJF1525.C6 _bB87 2016
082	0	0	_a658.4/6 _223 _bB956
100	1		_aBurgman, Mark A.
245	1	0	_aTrusting judgements : _bhow to get the best out of experts / _cMark A. Burgman.
260			_aCambridge : _bCambridge University Press, _c2016.
264		1	_a _b _c
300			_aix, 203 pages ; _c24 cm
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_aunmediated _bn _2rdamedia
338			_avolume _bnc _2rdacarrier
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505	8		_aMachine generated contents note: Preface; Acknowledgements; 1. What's wrong with consulting experts?; 2. Kinds of uncertainty; 3. What leads experts astray?; 4. Dealing with individual experts; 5. The wisdom of crowds revisited; 6. Tips to get the best out of experts; Appendix. Sources; References; Index.
520			_a"Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made"-- _cProvided by publisher.
650		0	_aGovernment consultants.
650		0	_aBusiness consultants.
650		0	_aExpertise _xPolitical aspects.
650		0	_aSpecialists.
650		0	_aPublic administration _xDecision making.
650		0	_aBusiness _xDecision making.
856	4	2	_3Cover image _uhttp://assets.cambridge.org/97811071/12087/cover/9781107112087.jpg
906			_a2021-154 _bcbc _corignew _d1 _eecip _f20 _gy-gencatlg
942			_2ddc _cBK _n0
999			_c9188 _d9188